Supreme Court weighs in on the President in Sri Lanka:

Politics

President's war and UNP's many battles


Mahinda Rajapakse, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sarath Silva
and P. B. Jayasundera

Mahinda places all bets on winning
the war before polls

President worried about SC jailing monk

PB shows how to win elections
and destroy economy

UNP reformists want broad front delayed

17th Amendment returns to haunt Mahinda

Politics on Sunday
By Sonali Samarasinghe

Even as the security forces and the LTTE were locked in fierce battles in the Wanni last week with heavy casualties suffered on both sides, President Rajapakse was well aware of the political importance of taking Killinochchi before the year's end.

While government websites gave huge figures of LTTE cadre dead and the Defence Ministry said forces had killed 54 rebels with 12 army personnel reported dead or missing, Tamilnet last Tuesday claimed 75 army personnel had been killed and 100 more wounded in Nachchikuda and between Akkaraayan and Vannearikku'lam last Monday and Tuesday and some 50 soldiers wounded in Vannearikku'lam.

Meanwhile news trickled down of stiff LTTE resistance to the government onslaught aimed at dismantling Tiger control of the Wanni. Diplomatic and other sources in touch with the Wanni have reported no feeling of desperation or despair on the part of the LTTE political hierarchy indicating greater battles are afoot.

Campaign pledge

The President was to pitch his PC election campaign on the capture of the Tiger stronghold promising to bring Pirapaharan to his knees before long. Rajapakse is aware that unlike the constituencies of Sabaragamuwa and the North Central Province with large Sinhala Buddhist majorities, other provinces such as Western, Uva and Wayamba have a sizeable minority population as well. Thus the decision to adopt a wait and see approach before calling for any more elections.

In many ways for the Rajapakses the war is going well despite the IDPs, large numbers of civilian dead and heavy casualties suffered. Alarmingly the number of war dead in Sri Lanka far exceed the numbers in far more large scale war zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan. However the government has been able to silence much of the diplomatic community.

The Bush regime for instance is ridiculed for its own obsession with military solutions and reviled for its total disregard of civilian life in its own wars. A recent U.N. report disputed by the US stated it had found "credible evidence" that up to 90 civilians including women and children, died in a US raid on a western Afghan village on the morning of August 22. By the government's own argument the Bush administration has no moral standing to preach to the Rajapakse administration.

Scripted lullabyes

Meanwhile carefully prepared defence briefings to the Western diplomatic community and scripted briefings to the international community whether by government agents in the east or by military commanders in Jaffna, have also resulted in a curious lull in their mindsets.

Even diplomats are wary of being overheard by the government, of their phones being tapped, or their conversations being recorded. Much of the independent media has either been bought over financially by the government or threatened into submission.

It is the thinking of many in the diplomatic community that there is a broad and well thought out strategy in place not confined to military matters that has succeeded in giving the government an edge coupled with a cavalier attitude towards human rights abuse and a don't-care attitude towards the opinions of the international community.

Rajapakse has also used Pakistan and China well, to buffer the Indians on the one hand and to continue with development projects on the other.

And all this while the motions of a democratic state are mechanically and facetiously followed, while commissions of inquiry and human rights commissions are maintained for propaganda purposes alone.

Judgments ignored

The judiciary seems to be of no consequence to the Executive as Rajapakse blatantly ignores its judgments, proffers pardons to convicted men of political value to his survival, protects the likes of Mervyn Silva and his cronies and endorses Treasury Secretary P.B. Jayasundera even though a recent Supreme Court judgment said he colluded with a local corporate giant in a corrupt privatisation deal.

Meanwhile a general election is expected in India either later this year or early next year which would of course have its own fallout on Sri Lanka. India will in such a situation seek to balance its domestic compulsions including the thinking of Tamil Nadu in handling Sri Lanka in the coming months. It is not the time to grapple with an influx of civilians fleeing the northern war zone, nor deal with the problems of the straying fisher folk. One also detects an apathy that has set in even among the diplomatic community with the exception perhaps of a few like the German Ambassador Jurgen Weerth who recently secured another one year extension of his tour of duty in Sri Lanka.

'Disposable commodity'

At a conference organised by the Federation of Chambersof Commerce Weerth was to say that Sri Lanka was a disposal commodity as far as Europe and Germany were concerned. "If," he said, "Sri Lanka were to disappear from the trade map of Germany she could be replaced tomorrow."The Ambassador was to also put matters in perspective when he said that, "Sri Lanka needs Europe more than Europe needs Sri Lanka."

Certainly Sri Lanka becomes insignificant in many a EU trade map and if Sri Lanka is given preference it is only due to sound diplomatic ties and the efforts of internationally savvy politicians. Undoubtedly the regional equation is different given the geo political ramifications but this is not clearly the case when it comes to Europe.

With almost two thirds of the world living below the poverty line funding and donors are never at a loss to wield their influence elsewhere. Several countries are vying to take Sri Lanka's place as the recipient of trade concessions like the GSP Plus and rake in a larger share from the Millennium Challenge Account for themselves.

It is for this reason that Sri Lanka must wrest the international initiative not only from the LTTE - which despite the intensified war is still strategically mindful of its image vis--vis the world - but also from other poor nations vying for Western gold.

Second term

Little wonder then that with hardly any opposition to his actions, President Rajapakse feels he is a President that can go on forever. Presently however he is obsessed with his second term in office. A term he would not easily surrender to a botched battle in the north.

But Rajapakse is well aware that by January next year Christmas will be over. The United States will have a new President and perhaps even a new Democratic administration. An administration that is unlikely to countenance the human rights violations and the IDPs, the abductions and the indiscriminate killing, the illegal arrests and the detention.

But if he loses his grip on the international mindset it could be far worse at home given that the economic burden on the public is only set to increase and defence spending will overshadow the 2009 budget.

He is also aware that having promised the head of Pirapaharan on a platter by December he must now deliver on the promise before he rushes in to any more provincial council elections. The militarized majority may still be war hungry but a failure to deliver on his military promises would make them once again focus on their hunger for rice rather than their thirst for war.

The only marketing tool at any election for the Rajapakse regime is the success of the war. It was this strategy that resulted in banner headlines of massive advances in the war zone days before the recently concluded PC elections. Propaganda that stated the forces would capture Killinochchi by August 23 - that is the morning of the election. Any future election can expect only more of the same war propaganda from the government campaign headquarters.

Clever strategy

It is this realisation that prompted President Rajapakse to publicly announce he would not rush in to hold more provincial council elections. Instead he is cleverly pitching himself again as the ultimate warrior by announcing last week he would hold elections in the Northern Province and appoint a northern chief minister soon.

By this statement he implies he would finish off the LTTE in the Wanni soon and that the people of the north could expect a 'liberation' a la the east.

But Rajapakse is not only preoccupied with military deadlines for political survival. The LMSL judgment that impugned Treasury Secretary P.B. Jayasundera simply won't go away.

Last week on September 2, the 22nd respondent in the case Nihal Sri Ameresekere, former chairman, PERC, filed a motion in the Supreme Court calling on the court to make further orders and directions as no action had been taken by the respondents to the case as per the SC judgment of July 21 which declared the LMSL privatisation deal between the government and John Keells null and avoid and executed in a wrongful, unlawful and fraudulent manner.

New motion

The motion stated that "not withstanding the direction by your lordships' court that 'all parties to these proceedings will take necessary action on the basis of the findings stated in the judgment' and notwithstanding the aforesaid respondents having been taken as ought to have been taken under and in terms of the applicable laws referred to in the aforesaid letters..the petitioner respectfully moves that your lordships' court be pleased to make further orders and/or give directions in terms of the jurisdiction vested in ...court."

And with Rajapakse going head to head with Chief Justice Sarath Silva on the LMSL issue, it is interesting to see how the appointment of the Constitutional Council and the implementation of the 17th Amendment is set to pan out given that the case is coming up for hearing in the Supreme Court on September 17.

In making the inaugural K.C. Kamalasabayson Memorial Oration on August 22, Supreme Court Justice Saleem Marsoof stressed the 'essential need to bring about changes in the polity and attitudes to create a climate for the appointment of a Constitutional Council so that it can begin functioning again.' He said that it was "extremely important for the preservation of the rule of law" and described it as "a high water mark in the legislative history of Sri Lanka."

Mandatory provisions

Justice Marsoof also observed that while there was an absence of such a Constitutional Council PC elections were held without the salutary oversight of an independent Elections Commission. Major appointments, he noted, were made without complying with mandatory provisions of the constitution.

Indeed this situation has resulted in arbitrary exercise of powers by President Rajapakse. However Chief Justice Sarath Silva was to observe that no one was above the law when he issued summons to President Rajapakse also made a respondent in the 17th Amendment implementation case coming up on September 17, despite the Attorney General's argument that the President had immunity.

And if this wasn't enough President Rajapakse had another headache at hand in the form of a simmering Buddhist clergy. And it was this delicate matter that occupied his mind as he entered the cabinet meeting last Wednesday.

Monk issue

If at first it was the issue of attacks on churches led by certain Buddhist monks, last Wednesday it was the remanding of a Buddhist monk by the Supreme Court that was to worry the Presidential mind. The monk was remanded last week following his failure to present himself in court on a noise pollution case filed against him.

Certainly the increase in the attacks on Christian churches has had an impact internationally and among the Christian community and Rajapakse little needed the Buddhist clergy on his back as well.

"The Supreme Court has remanded a Buddhist monk but it is the government that will get blamed for having sent a monk into jail," a worried Rajapakse told cabinet. Minister Mahinda Wijesekera was to then interject. "Originally this was an issue between two churches which was filed before the Supreme Court as a fundamental rights application but the SC gave a ruling on noise pollution that was applicable to the whole country and as the SC is the final authority there is nowhere else to go to challenge the judgment," Wijesekera said.

State of the economy

However even President Rajapakse is aware that it is neither the opposition nor the war effort but rather the state of the economy that will come to haunt him and challenge his presidency in the coming months. And it is to assess the economy that the cabinet had summoned the secretaries of line ministries working with several aid agencies like the ADB and in charge of road, water electricity and energy projects, to hit them with the digits. A presentation that would take till 8.45pm thatWednesday.

Therefore various statistics on the period taken to complete projects, delays which would impact negatively on the government in terms of financial loss, supply and demand statistics, were presented in an extensive PowerPoint presentation even as it became clear that Rajapakse's massive cabinet would also have to tighten its belt and desist from serving itself large slices of public funds.

Treasury Secretary Dr. P.B. Jayasundara was to explain to cabinet that government's expenditure would be hostage again to the war for at least a further 12 months and even if the war were ended by next year the government had to commit itself to rebuilding the war torn north and east.

In issuing guidelines for the ministers to prepare the budgetary proposals of their respective ministries for the 2009 budget he had also reportedly advised the government to focus on the completion of the mega development projects initiated in the country such as the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant and the Uma Oya Project.

Foreign borrowing

He also advised ministers to prioritise donor-funded projects and explained that foreign borrowing was more profitable due to the lower interest rates as against local rates.

Jayasundera had also pointed out that a high percentage of funds typically went for recruitment and payment of salaries and pensions and there were glitches over acquisition of land for the implementation of projects that had resulted in court cases.

Jayasundera who himself had been recently impugned by the apex court for having acted in collusion with a private institution to the detriment of the public interest had also pointed out that donor funding was not properly utilised.

The underlying message by Jayasundera presented subtly due to his political masters of the day being present was that was how and why the government could survive while the economy plummets.

There are approximately 1.1 million public servants, 500,000 pensioners, 400,000 in the estate sector and 1.8 million Samurdhi recipients. When you add these numbers it comes to an impressive 3.8 million approximately. If one takes each of these people to influence a family of three then there are easily about 10 million people covered by government benefits.

Survival tactics

Therefore an increase in these benefits would certainly allow the government's continued political survival but the underlying message from the Treasury Secretary despite his reticence to say it specifically was that a government cannot in anyway sustain an economy in the long term with such short term election result oriented methods.

There is little hope for an economy of a nation where the government continues to dole out favours, increase government salaries, up Samurdhi benefits, and throw out financial goodies with no long term plan of action to stabilise and restructure the economy for the benefit not only of government employees but also the rest of the population.

Certainly the UNP regime of Ranil Wickremesinghe had to pay the price of electoral defeat for a long term plan which included scaling back on government increments and salary hikes and a cut in subsidies. The UNP's tight economic ship and fiscal discipline enabled the country to bring down inflation to almost zero percent at the time it was defeated.

At the time it was the SLFP and the JVP that hit out at the UNP government for its cautious budget discipline with even UNP ministers grumbling that they were not allowed to increase salaries in their ministries or make new recruitments which impacted on their constituencies.

Head start

Increasing salaries of public servants and doling out increments will ensure that the government has a hold on approximately 10 million voters. It also ensures that such a government will get a head start at any election and can never be defeated due to the insular and selfish mindset not only of the politician but also of the individual voter who will obviously put self before country.

This is reflected in the results of the postal vote which is always won by the SLFP, PA or UPFA due to its policy of palavering the government servant to the detriment of the country's long term interest.

Meanwhile it is in this backdrop that the UNP was to begin soul searching in earnest as the party searched for the factors that contributed to its recent defeat at the PC polls.

With the cause for defeat attributed to various reasons such as the perception of a winnable war, leadership issues and the thinking that the UNP was retaining its base but not attracting new voters, the party's working committee that met soon after the PC polls decided that reform within the party was a must.

It was even as reform was being seriously talked about that SLFP (M) Convenor Mangala Samaraweera was to weigh in on the issue pointing out that a broad front was necessary to face the formidable challenge of a government without conscience.

Call for unity

Waving a copy of Hitler's book Mein Kampf he told a news conference it is time the opposition united without hanging on to party symbols to face this challenge and prevent the country from sliding into Nazism.

Following Samaraweera's call to unite the UNP held its political affairs meeting last Wednesday at 10.30 am where the notable absentees were Sajith Premadasa and S.B. Dissanayake.

The problem that faces both Sajith and S.B. is that while aspiring to be leaders on the one hand they do not step up to the plate on the other when called upon to do so, both opting to play it safe. So much so that the Mahanayaka of the Asgiriya Chapter had advised S.B. Dissanayake he should take up robes and be still, until his bad period or apala kalaya had passed.

Be that as it may UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was to open the meeting with a frank discussion of the recently concluded PC elections. Chairman Rukman Senanayake said the people had worked hard during the campaign and the party had lost despite this.

Gamini Jayawickrama Perera was to observe that there was a clear swing towards the UNP and there was no point blaming Wickremesinghe as it was clear the government had rigged the election. John Amaratunge also called for the party to now work together but firebrand Johnston Fernando immediately shot back stating that if the party continued lethargically in its old ways it would be a never ending story and it could never recover from this electoral slump.

Public statements

It was then pointed out by some that the problem was that Johnston Fernando and Lakshman Seneveritne had been making public statements the leadership should be changed. Johnston is said to have even made this statement to Derana TV that the leader must be changed. Johnston however was to defend his remarks stating 'But that is my opinion.'

Vajira Abeywardena was to say that the numbers needed to be checked first while Lakshman Seneviratne said the party must look at winning, not maintaining more of the same, while Joseph Michael Perera said there was a necessity to rectify whatever had gone wrong and work on it.

Ranil Wickremesinghe was to now broach the subject of forming a broad front. He stated that Ravi Karunanayake MP had been having discussions with Mangala Samaraweera on the issue and called for a decision to be made on the matter.

The mandate to speak to Samaraweera and others had earlier been given by a committee which included Lakshman Seneviratne and Tissa Attanayake which came up with a national ten point planner for the party. Rukman Senanayake pointed out that approval had been given to speak to parties by the working committee.

Internal issues

At this time Johnston Fernando was to say that before the party could think of broad alliances it had to address the internal issues and set in place the reforms. Lakshman Seneviratne concurred with Johnston stating the party must now come up with a winning formula.

Wickremesinghe then said the party must go ahead and talk to other parties to form a broad front as a senior committee of the UNP had already discussed it.

Ravi Karunanayake was of the opinion that before the party spoke to outsiders it should sort out its internal problems and set an agenda for internal reform so that when it negotiates with other parties it does so on a strong and sure footing. Wickremesinghe was to agree with this thinking.

Johnston Fernando was now to point out that even though SLFP (M) was brought in with promise of the deputy premiership given to Mangala Samaraweera they had failed to deliver.

However despite the doubts by some UNP members, the formation of a broad opposition alliance has been of grave concern to President Rajapakse as well. No doubt this is because he is aware that the UNP base vote has not shifted.

A broad alliance may bring the much needed 5-6 percent of voters that could tip the scale. It is this suspicion of a broad alliance that compelled SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena to float a story about more crossers over from the UNP to the government immediately after the PC elections. A rumour quashed by current agitators Johnston Fernando and Lakshman Seneviratne as nonsense.

Party symbol

Nevertheless, a change in the party symbol was also discussed at the UNP political affairs committee with some members opposing stating it would have an adverse impact on the UNP grassroots level vote bank. Others were of the view a change would help capture the imagination of the floating voter who is averse to voting either for the hand, the elephant or the betel leaf. They were of the opinion that the UNP base vote is stable and the UNP should now look at capturing the floating vote.

Party seniors Jayalath Jayawardena and D.M. Swaminathan were to however say that a broad front was acceptable but it was essential that the elephant symbol be retained.

Nonetheless the political affairs committee unanimously approved the holding of discussions towards forming a broad alliance and a continuation of discussions with such parties as the SLMC, Mano Ganesan and the WPF, Mangala Samaraweera and SLFP (M) to this end.

The committee was to then discuss the importance of supporting the war. UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe said terrorism must be crushed while working out a political solution to the national question, which was acceptable to all major communities living in Sri Lanka.

It was decided that the UNP should come up with a clear-cut policy on the national question, and work out its propaganda strategy. Wickremesinghe appointed a committee to come up with a counter strategy to the government's disinformation about its war effort.

The committee was to be headed by Lakshman Kiriella MP, and included amongst others Ravi Karunanayake, Dayasiri Jayasekera, Ranga Bandara, Janaka Perera, Ranjan Ramanayake, and Imtiaz Bakeer Markar.

In this overall context the country is bound to see interesting political developments in the coming weeks.