End of the road for Rajapakse incorporated also?

Or Would they send a White Van to fetch the author?
End of the road for Rajapakse incorporated also?

While it is generally believed it is the end of the road for Prabakaran and the Tigers, many Lankan watchers believe equally the days of the Rajapakse regime appears to be numbered as well – economically and politically. Sarath Fonseka is "almost there" in his once-more delayed endeavor in presenting a "final military victory" to his political Buddhist-Sinhala boss. But the more important "winning the hearts and minds of the Tamil people" - must necessarily wait for another occasion – if at all.

The pyrrhic victory army's Fonseka – joined by hiss colleagues in the Air-force and Navy - is likely to deliver has, on the other hand, resulted in the more undesirable feature in bringing to its knees the economic health of the 20 million nation – now in the throes of a rocketing Cost of Living now in the stratosphere; mass unemployment by the closure of garment, manufacturing factories and trading companies; an imminent flow-back of thousands of Lankan workers in the Gulf that brought in an appreciable portion of our annual foreign-exchange earnings; collapse of the stock-market; confusion in the tea, rubber and cinnamon market - just to name a few. In fairness to him it may be added here Rajapakse did not begin the down-slide with the armed adventure Vs the LTTE. The unenviable credit to this must go to his predecessor CBK, now in splendid retirement with spoils all hither, thither and yon. Even fresh fish, caught locally for as long as one can remember, has to be imported to keep spiraling prices down in an island surrounded by marine-rich oceans “ but for how long?

The culprit for the economic collapse is widely believed to be Mahinda's "Economic Czar" and his personal choice as Central Bank Governor - Ajith Nivaard Cabraal, whom the Colombo business community did not accept any more than as an average Accountant with hardly any achievement of significant note to write home about. His only qualification appears to be he is more than willing to be an 'yes' man to the President and the more vocal in the ruling clique – a PhD equivalent that seems to impress many political heads in many developing countries than the hard-headed stuff of learned economists from Harvard, Wharton and the OxCam league. Even senior economists and administrators the government consulted prior to Cabraal's appointment were either vocally against the appointment or, being polite to the President, remained lukewarm. Rajapakse failed to take notice of the advise and the hint – and now finds himself feeling the full heat of the baptism of fire.

Of Cabraal's celebrated guffaws the more serious ones are his brushing aside the inevitable dire affects to the country of the burgeoning global recession – "this will not have much of an affect on uusâ" quoth this economic giant contemptuously. And more recently, his arrogant dismissal of the IMF betrays the lack of academic depth. He has now made Rajapakse eat humble pie with the high priests of the IMF - forcing the latter to seek an embarrassing bail-out close to US$2 billion - the only oxygen in the horizon to the collapsing economy. Cabraal's assurance to Rajapakse the Sinhala diaspora will instantly come out with US$500 million lies in shatters – and predictably so. Even the now nondescript UNP annd its lackluster leader Ranil Wickramasinghe are in stitches laughing uncontrollably at the government's imposed vulnerability.

The Shylockish IMF is unlikely to open her purse strings easily and without laying bitter conditions. Cabraal may not tell his boss that the "caning" from the IMF for (Cabraal's) "perali" will have much to do with "ill-advised excessive and un-necessary purchase of arms and costly equipment" to all three forces in the overkill pursuit of an enemy numbering less than a few thousands - Fonseka's figures. IMF will naturally expect economic advisors of the government to preach wisdom, discipline and caution to weak governments in the clutches of uniformed men and clerics. But then was it not that unforgettable Irishman Oscar Wilde who remarked "those who cannot learn now take to teaching"?
But this is only the beginning of Rajapakse's litany of woes. Closer at hand, India has called out a General Election for mid-April where the two major political entities – the Coalitions around the Congress under Sonia and that under the Hindu-rightist BJP – are going all-out to win. Tamilnadu with 39 Lok Sabha seats will be a prized ally of both the Congress and the BJP. The far-right Narendra Modi sweeping Gujarat in the recent State Elections there – against a hostile Press and electronic as the partissan "NDTV" – could well mean the Indian electorate will oscillate this time towards the BJP.

It is only but an imbecile who will claim ignorance as to what this can mean to a Sinhala government arguably imposing injustice on their Tamils for decades. Knowing all too well which side of the bread is buttered that fiery "Amma" Jeyaram Jayalalitha is not going to be too far away from the Lankan Tamil question, from which she kept herself aloof all these years.
She has caused a tremendous shift in the balance of power of Tamilnadu politics by openly coming out in favour of " Separate State " for the Lankan Tamils. It shall not be long before Kalaignar joins in the fray - possibly with a wilder pronouncement. It will be only the political naive within the government and its coterie of "advisors" who will fail to take note of this significant change in TN politics. Jayalalitha" message to both the Congress and the BJP is "I am available" (no pun intended here) though concubine she was when the debonair MGR was around. Out there in the big wide world things do not particularly bring in glad tidings to massage the ego of the Rajapakse's.

This is probably why Dayan Jayatilake, the controversial trouble-shooter of the regime in Geneva , now down-sized, titled his latest peace "Are we being encircled globally just as we have encircled the Tigers locally." Despite his faults Jayatilake, son of an illustrious journalist giant, knows what's going on in the world though compulsions of necessity result in some twists and turns. It is easy to dupe the Lankans by claiming Hillary Clinton only called President Rajapakse "to express her condolences to the Matara carnage" That was only "starters" although the local media was "instructed by Temple Trees to twist it so. International Herald Tribune was one of the major dailies to report "Hillary Clinton called Rajapakse to warn him to make sure his Army keeps Wanni civilian casualties to the minimum from now on" Spokesmen of the UK, Germany, E/U governments had similar messages consistent with the report of the IHT. Some are yet to learn Goebellism died in Germany with the man during WW2.

More importantly and from close proximity, New Delhi used similar language in her communique. An unusually larger number of US Senators both Democrat and Republican (38 to be exact), MP's from both sides of the British House of Commons, the EU Parliament, UN's High Commissioner of Human Rights the South African Ms Navanitham Pillai proceeded to do what was expected of them. While some held hearings others sent in their own messages "expressing grave concern" in the increasing number of civilian casualties by the army. The world remembers the massacre of the 5 youth in Trincomalee and the execution of over a dozen relief-workers under the flag of a French NGO - where the role of the army was clearly visible.

Although Sri Lanka treats them lightly now, the International Group of Eminent Persons are held in high esteem everywhere - if one only cares to look at the list of these experienced academics. They certainly carry much punch with several governments. The damage-control efforts of the Lankan variety of a Goebellesian reincarnation - Dr Rajiva Wijesinghe of the Lankan Peace Secretariat – too failed although, he duly, as expected of him, fired salvo after salvo on anyone criticizing his "boss" and the charmed regime. The undue delay in the army mopping off the few remaining LTTE cadres within the 35+ sq. kilo meters a minor job for any army worth its salt – is being commented upon by our Donors.

After all, they ask, "how come 40,000 of your well-armed troops are unable to cage in a rag-tag group of a few thousand LTTE?". Shankar Menon's most recent visit to Washington and his meeting with Secretary Clinton and other high ranking officials where the "Sri Lankan issue" took centre stage caused much consternation in Colombo. The subsequent report that the US Naval Fleet anchored in the Gulf is considering a sea-borne mission (invasion is too sensitive a word for the regime and the patriots) "to save the trapped Wanni civilians" sent shivers down the spine of Temple Trees and the Sinhala supremacist-chauvinist fringe admitted by the regime as "holding the Rajapakse government as prisoners".

The worst fear must be the haunting spectre of some of the leaders in the Rajapakse government - notably Gothabaya, Basil Rajapakse and Sarath Fonseka - with US Citizenship credentials –“ being tainted with abominable "War crime" and genocide charges. The safe thought China, a member of the UN Security Council, will use her Vetoe powers to strike downany move to have any of China" friends or allies getting into hot waters has to be reviewed in the light of the fate of President Bashir of Sudan, whose resources and friendship is far more important to energy-hungry China than Sri Lanka. Bashir could not be saved from indictment before the International Court of Criminal Justice.

If one read through the BBC interview in which Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe was confronted with by Hard Talk" (BBC) Stephen Sachur and the statement of Chairman of the Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on Near and Far Eastern Affairs Senator Bob Casey the similarity in approach by both came out. Both usedin their addresses the immature and prejudicial quotes of Defence Secretary Rajapakse "Who is Lasantha?" ""Anyone not agreeing with us is committing treason" "Civilian Hospitals in the Wanni are legitimate targets of the armed forces" Too bad this un-diplomatic man with little culture or knowledge of the ways of the world is allowed to create further trouble to his brother. Clearly there appears to be some form of convergence of thoughts in the approach to the Lankan issue by several influential countries in different parts of the world.

They seem convinced the current Rajpakse government is either unwilling or unable to "protect civilians in the Wanni from further human rights horrors - not excluding massacres" That the LTTE well may be holding them as hostages for their (LTTEs) own safety is something the numerically superior Lankan army and armed forces should move to neutralize. Failing to act, delaying to act to protect and defend "Tamils " "our own people" (language used by the President, Foreign Minister, Foreign Secretary and others. Note Defence Secretary Rajapakse is hardly heard to use these accommodative terms).

And to make matters worse, the latest threat of that political parvenu and wind-bag Wimal Weerawansa two days ago "he will get his goons from his Front to surround the UN Office" in Colombo can only bring further trouble to Mahinda Rajapakse as further evidence of his being unable to leash extremist and dangerous forces within his fold. This kind of "mariakade" language appears to be the stock-in-trade of many of President Rajapakse's "friends" within his fold such as the likes of his attack animal Dr. Mervyn who is behind many incredible acts of violence – Sri Lanka's own version of Slumdog millioanaire.

Though it might have results within Sri Lanka and particularly in intimidating innocent Tamils in the wider, such ghastly behaviour is treated with utter contempt in civilized countries. As another columnist recently concluded "Rajapakse appears to be in the process of ending what SWRD Banda started in 1956 and which Prabakaran effectively carried out in the post-1983 period. That is to say, dividing the country into two Sinhala-Tamil geographical and linguistic units

end:

A few other factors the author has over looked which needs to added on.

The tourist industry is suffering much more than admitted by the GOSL.
The numbers are down by 15-17%. The type of tourist who are missing are the big spenders from Europe and Japan. So the numbers are deceptive.

Many foreign investors in the stock market are slowly selling and taking their money out before the big devaluation of the currency.

Not only the middle employers are being laid off and packed back home, but the new employment are not taking place. So it is a double whammy, that includes the housemaids in Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong, as well as both legal and illegal workers in Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

The fishing industry is further crippled and the current war has also reduced the rice production and other agricultural products in the entire Vanni.

The Oil hedging contracts have to be paid totaling $800 million dollars plus late payments and interest. GOSL's credibility is also further reduced with the foreign banks and investors.

Mihin Air has lost 6 billion rupees or more. It will continue to loose more money which the GOSL does not have to loose.
Operation of Mihin Air also reduces the load factors of Sri Lankan Airlines so causing further operational losses.

The 1 million Tamils are also making an effort to boycott goods and services from Sri Lanka, reduce inward remittances, and dispose of their investments. UNP made a statement only yesterday stating there is a 40% reduction in inward remittances this year which they blamed the losses in jobs in the middle east. Whatever the reasons, the country's foreign reserves have dropped dangerously low to $1.4 billion dollars, in January 2009. There was a 17% loss in the first month alone compared to 2008 figure, and February figures are due next week. It is no wonder the CB are running behind the IMF to Washington last week, and all are ready to kneel when the IMF arrives on Monday. (Or is it jump high?).

The damage done to the financial industry by the Golden Key Credit Card and finance companies cannot be measured. The whole Ceylinco Group might have to be liquidated and there will be big losses the Central Bank will have to bear the losses while they struggle to pay the depositors slowly. The loss amount could be anything between 50 to 110 Billion dollars. The Tax department will also loose big revenues. Overnight the depositors also could have lost 100 billion rupees from the 4 finance companies, as well as the stock market could loose more. This has nothing to do with the global economic crisis, but just a Bernie Madoff scandal, which the Central bank has created due to the lack of supervision and incompetence.

There could be soon a massive amount of unemployment from the group and indirect loss of jobs creating more employment. Interest losses to the public could be another 20-25 billion rupees all of which is money and wealth evaporating.

The crisis at Ceylinco will also depress the real estate value in general, as more land and building changes hands and "fire sale" of land and buildings takes place. I am aware of many wealthy depositors putting their homes and expensive cars for sale at reduced prices in desperation. At least one wealthy depositor has died of a sudden heart attack.

The confidence in Finance companies and banks is reduced and stock prices of all financial institutions will remain depressed.

Im short the Finance Minister Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse, the new treasury secretary, Central bank governor Ajit Cabraal have a bigger headache than the 300,000 Tamils ib Vanni who are paying 30 rupees for a panadol, which is less than a rupee in Colombo.
One could say the Bad Karma is visiting the villains of the peace and State Terrorist in Colombo.

The IMF this week will bring the 17 conditions for the $1.9 billion dollar bail out package, which was not a part of the " Mahinda Chinthana". strangely, this is the exact amount of the military budget for 2008-2009, which can only show 5,000 deaths for 2008-2009 or more when the secret figures of the loss of lives in the military are properly tabulated. The medical expenses, payment of compensation and expenses for the refugees and displaced people, repairs to the Tax department itself are also not part of the Mahinda Chinthana budget.

There will be huge discrepancies in the revenues and actual expenses for the GOSL which has to reflect in the government's bal;ance sheet in 2009.
All in all there is no good news for this government which was installed by the very Tamils they are busy killing. The Jaffna and Vanni Tamils refrained from participating in the Presidential election polls three and a half years ago.

The old "Cliche" that the people deserve the government they get might come true in this instance. The danger is what else is in store for the country under Mahinda Chinthana.
More bad news? Especially at the UN security council, UN Human Rights council, US Senate and Congress, British and EU Parliament?
Only thing the Singhalese are good at is attack everybody who speak up for the Tamils as Terrorist, LTTE supporters. LTTE lovers, or worse bought up by LTTE.
They do this in the hope of scaring them away.
What a blunder the Singhalese and GOSL are making in their madness?

Tamils For Justice: