Prabha Appeals To Diaspora While Tigers Prepare For 'Final Battle'

Prabha Appeals To Diaspora While Tigers Prepare For 'Final Battle'


The old saying “All roads lead to Rome” is one that had its roots in the period when the ancient Roman Empire was at its zenith. The new saying currently in vogue in Sri Lanka seems to be “All roads lead to Mullaitivu”.

Several fighting elements of the Sri Lankan army have either moved in or are moving into the North-eastern district of Mullaitivu. In a related move, particular formations of the armed forces are targeting Mullaitivu town.

There is a great deal of optimism in the corridors of power in Colombo that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are on the verge of being defeated and destroyed. This feeling has percolated downwards to the ordinary people too.

Ostensibly, there seem to be valid reasons for this buoyant optimism. Hectic developments within a three-week period between last year’s Christmas eve and Thai Pongal day of this year have transformed the military situation dramatically.

Recent events indicate that the armed forces of Sri Lanka (not that of the president, government or SLFP) are on top of the situation right now. The Jaffna peninsula in its entirety is cleared of the LTTE. Significant areas of the Northern mainland known as Wanni are also taken by the army.

Notwithstanding Tiger resistance the military juggernaut rolls on forward inexorably. If the recent track record of LTTE resistance is anything to go by it does seem inevitable that the remaining positions held by the Tigers would also be overrun in the near future.

Jingoistic triumphalism

Against this backdrop it does seem understandable that many nostrils are overpowered by the sweet fragrance of success on the military front.

What is unacceptable however is the flagrant display of jingoistic triumphalism by vested interests and the disgustingly blatant kudos claiming attempt by powerful sections of the government and defence establishment.

In a situation where massive efforts at diverse levels are going on to promote an impression that it’s “match over” for Velupillai Prabhakaran and the LTTE, there is naturally a sharp focus on the tigers.

As disaster looms larger on the politico – military horizon what will the LTTE do? Or what can the LTTE do? Are multi-crore questions.

Catch me if you can

There is much speculation about the future of Prabhakaran and the LTTE. Some sections of the media have already written him off saying he has left the Island or is planning to leave. There is also a lot of discussion about whether to hand Prabhakaran over to India or try him in Sri Lanka and execute him.

This passionate discussion about the potential fate of a yet to be caught Prabhakaran reminds me of a recipe for rabbit soup. After specific instructions on how to cook the soup, the recipe ends by saying “First catch your rabbit.”

Despite the gleeful anticipation of Humpty-dumpty having a great fall, there is still a chance that the rabbit would escape the snare being set. One cannot predict anything with certainty in war, but if the Tiger leader does survive, he could then echo Mark Twain with a slight change and say that reports of his impending death or capture have been “greatly exaggerated.”

The elusive Velupillai Prabhakaran has been singing “catch me if you can” to the authorities for nearly four decades from his teenage. One does not know whether his luck would run out now, but one thing for sure is that he would neither flee the country nor be caught alive like Peru’s Guzman or Iraq’s Saddam.

Prabhakaran’s erstwhile eastern regional commander Vinayagamurthy Muraleetharan alias “Col” Karuna nowadays chatters away to the media about many, many things. One is that Prabhakaran loves to live and that he would never take his own life.

Tryst with destiny

Karuna who once called Prabhakaran his “God” has conveniently forgotten that once upon a time the former North-Eastern Provincial Chief Minister Annamalai Varatharajapperumal also used to say the same thing about Prabhakaran when he was in power. The belief then also was that the LTTE leader’s days were numbered.

The lowest nadir in LTTE fortunes after 1983 was the period of time when the Tigers fought the Indian Army. That was when the capture of Prabhakaran in the jungles of Mullaitivu by the Indian Army seemed inevitable at some point of time.

During this phase, Prabhakaran had around 40 – 50 cadres with him at all times as bodyguards. One cadre carried with him at all times a plastic vessel of petrol. His instructions were to douse the “thalaiver”s (leader) body with petrol and burn it if ever Prabhakaran was killed or committed suicide.

This was because Prabhakaran did not want even his body to be seized by the Indians and exhibited as a trophy. He was quite prepared then to die or take his own life if capture was imminent. But he was not ready to surrender or be caught alive.

The moot point here is whether LTTE fortunes at this juncture have sunk to low depths where the future of Prabhakaran has become a question mark or whether there are miles to go before the LTTE supremo’s tryst with destiny.

Down but not out

It was only last month (Dec 20) that this column opined that the “Tigers though down were not out”.

Rapid strides have been made by the Army on the northern front since I wrote the above article. The army is virtually rattling the locks on the doors of the LTTE’s citadels in the Wanni.

Under these circumstances many have sent e-mails mocking me or asking whether I am still of the same opinion.

My simple answer is “Yes, I am of the same opinion still”. The Tigers though down are not yet out even in positional warfare.

However, what I must acknowledge is that I am indeed puzzled by the LTTE’s conduct in the past weeks. I am particularly intrigued to some extent and alarmed to a greater extent by what I think is going to be Prabhakaran’s response to the military juggernaut threatening to engulf the Tigers.

Video cassette

Prabhakaran’s intentions are directly revealed in a video cassette doing the rounds in Tamil Diaspora circles in Europe, North America and Australasia. Prabhakaran and the Tiger political commissar Balasingham Nadesan are featured in it.

Both are seated at a table and directly address the “Pulam Peyarntha Uravugal” (relatives gone abroad) entreating them to continue extending support for the struggle. Prabhakaran assures the Diaspora that the LTTE is not weak as “our enemies are saying” but admits that the Tigers have only been fighting a defensive war so far.

They also say that they have had to withdraw from earlier positions and vacate territory in fighting this defensive war. They point out that this was necessary to prevent their cadres being killed in large numbers. As a result of this strategy the LTTE has been able to retain their cadre base and also safely relocate most of their military assets.

According to Prabhakaran and Nadesan the time is drawing near for the LTTE to stop defensive measures and launch offensives. They say that certain objectives have been defined and preparations are on to attack very soon.

They also rule out speculation that the LTTE would revert to guerrilla warfare and emphasise that the Tigers would function like an army of liberation.

As such they advise the Diaspora not to be misled by false propaganda and conclude hastily that the LTTE is finished.

The duo acknowledge the fact that there have been setbacks but reiterate that the LTTE is yet strong and can continue fighting for Tamil Eelam. They request the Diaspora not to lose heart and continue supporting the struggle.

Other pointers

Apart from this development where Prabhakaran makes a direct appeal, there are other pointers to the future course of the LTTE.

The Tiger radio “Puligalin Kural” (voice of Tigers) has been repeatedly exhorting the people to get ready for a protracted people’s war. The VOT continues to use the phrases “Makkal Yutham”(people’s war” and “Iruthippor” (final battle) in its broadcasts.

In a further development the LTTE has revived its “Makkal Padai” (peoples force) and “Ellaippadai” (border force). Both these forces comprise both civilian volunteers and conscripts. They were given military training and sent home earlier. Also all civilian employees in LTTE structures like banks, courts etc have been summoned to arms.

The Tigers have also allowed its cadres with relatives abroad to telephone them. Each cadre is given one call of five minutes duration. Those who talk to family members seem cheerful and tell them not to worry and that soon there will be good news. Of course one cannot expect these cadres to speak frankly on monitored telephone calls.

The LTTE is also compelling students who just sat for the GCE (OL) to engage in “Shramadana” to dig and construct bunkers for civilian protection. These students are only given food and refreshments and are supervised by senior Tiger operatives.

The Tigers are also busily constructing a third defensive ring around key areas presently under their control. Cadres and civilians are constructing a complex of bunkers, bunds and trenches around a broadly rectangular swathe of land which includes beachfront. The total area of this protectorate could be from 500 sq km to 800 sq km in area.

Civilian plight

All these developments demonstrate that the LTTE is getting ready for a long, drawn-out battle. But what is shockingly alarming about this is that innocent Tamil civilians are going to be trapped and endangered.

Already the civilians are being forced to participate in war efforts through compulsory military training for able – bodied people under 40. It appears that these hapless civilians would be led to the slaughter by the LTTE under the guise of fighting the last battle or people’s war.

On the other hand the state is also on a militaristic enterprise without adequate concern for the civilians. Defence officials want to increase military pressure and compel civilians to either escape from Tiger areas or rebel against the LTTE. Already many civilians have been killed or injured in shelling and bombing.

Nearly two thousand civilians have taken great risks and come across to army controlled areas. They relate harrowing tales of how the LTTE is preventing them at gun point from moving out to safer areas.

People trying to escape have been shot dead or caught and given public executions they say. Sadly those who take enormous risks and flee from Tiger clutches find themselves ‘detained” in camps for the displaced and denied freedom of movement.The LTTE says it is fighting for the liberation of the Tamil people. The government says it is fighting to liberate the Tamil people from LTTE tyranny. The reality is that of civilians getting crushed by both sides. As the LTTE controlled area shrinks in size and large numbers of civilians are interspersed with tiger cadres the people become increasingly vulnerable.

Paranthan junction

Although the LTTE seems confident of fighting a protracted war, recent events show that the Army is advancing and the LTTE retreating.

Let me briefly recap the military situation that has evolved over the past three weeks.

The 58 division that made a vital breakthrough by breaching the LTTE “bund – trench” at Kunchuparanthan (Aka Sinnaparanthan) west of the “Kudamurutti Aaru “ river then struck out in a north – eastern direction and reached the general area of Thattuvaankottu near Elephant Pass.

The soldiers then doubled back and came up behind Tiger positions in the rear. They surprised the Tigers by clandestinely crossing a large pond and attacking. In a fierce fight the LTTE lost around 50 cadres including senior leader “Lt. Col.” Eelapiriyan.

Thereafter the Tiger defences crumbled and the 58 troops mounted the Jaffna – Kandy road known as the A – 9 Highway at a point near Umaiyaalpuram north of Paranthan.

Then one column of the 58 began moving south towards Paranthan along the A – 9 axis. Another column moved from Kunchuparanthan – Uruthirapuram area towards the Karadipokku junction between Paranthan and Kilinochchi on the A – 9.The LTTE holding the strategic Paranthan “Santhi” or junction and environs was caught in the middle. As troops began advancing towards Paranthan junction from north and south the Tigers began withdrawing. The 58 consolidated Paranthan on December 31.

Once Paranthan was taken the fate of Kilinochchi was a foregone conclusion. As speculated in these columns the long – awaited “mother of all battles” for Kilinochchi town and environs did not take place. Instead the tigers began vacating Kilinochchi as the army commenced a three – pronged drive.

The 58 marched southwards; Soldiers of 57 division began moving from Puthumurippu through Kanagapuram moved in an eastern direction. The 57 – 4 moved north from the Iranaimadhu junction .With the tigers gone. Kilinochchi town was taken completely on Jan 2 without a shot being fired.

Elephant Pass

Having taken Paranthan, the 58 now moved north towards Elephant Pass, the gateway to Jaffna. Soldiers took Kurinchatheevu adjacent to the Aanai Iravu isthmus and then moved to the southern side of Elephant Pass causeway linking peninsula to mainland.One would have expected Prabhakaran to withdraw cadres stationed in the peninsula as soon as Paranthan fell. As stated in these columns holding Elephant Pass or remaining inside the peninsula would have been impossible once Paranthan was taken.

LTTE cadres stationed along the Kilaly – Muhamaalai – Nagar Kovil defence line would have been double enveloped with the 58 moving north and the 53 and 55 moving south. But for some reason the Tigers did not immediately withdraw.

This delay allowed the 53 and 55 to commence a downwards thrust towards Elephant Pass. Now the Tigers began a staggered withdrawal from entrenched positions while simultaneously evacuating cadres from the peninsula.

In a “kutti” or “punchi” Dunkirk – type evacuation the LTTE succeeded in moving out around 3500 – 4000 cadres and armaments away from the peninsula within 4 or 5 days. One escape route was from the Vadamaratchy east coast in sea tiger boats. The other was across the Chundikulam lagoon from Kombaatty to Ooriyaan in dingys and rafts.

With the LTTE vacating under strong military pressure the 53 marched swiftly towards Elephant Pass taking Pallai, Puloppalai, Soranpatru, Pullaveli, Puthukkaadu junction, Iyakkachchi and finally Elephant Pass.

Elephant Pass was wrested from the army in April 2000 by the LTTE. After the capture of Poonagary this column predicted that Elephant Pass would be in the hands of the military again by the 9th anniversary of its fall. Elephant Pass however was recaptured in January itself.

The 55 division then started moving down along the eastern coast of the peninsula. The LTTE began abandoning its sea Tiger bases in places like Maamunai, Chembianpatru, Maruthankerny, Thaalaiaddy, Vettrilaikerny, Kattaikaadu, Aaliyawalai, Uduthurai, Vathiraayan etc. Finally the 55 moved through Mulliyaan to Chundikulam. With that the entire peninsula was cleared of LTTE positions.

A-35 Highway

Meanwhile the LTTE began establishing a new defence line in areas east of the A – 9 Highway. Attempts were made to construct another “bund – trench” complex from the northern tank bund of Iranaimadhu reservoir in the south to Ooriyaan along the Chundikulam lagoon in the north. This defence line cut across the Paranthan – Mullaitheevu Road known as A – 35 in Murasumoddai near the second milepost.

The 58 division under Brig. Shavendra de Silva which began its advance last year from Adampan in Mannar now continued its forward movement eastwards along the A – 35 axis. After heavy fighting it reached Murasumoddai junction and began branching out to Kandawalai in the north and Vatakachchi in the south. Currently the 58 has begun moving into Tharmapuram.

Military gains

There were other significant military gains too. Task Force Three that had earlier taken Olumadhu on the Mankulam – Mullaitheevu Road known as A – 34 had moved up to Karippattaimurippu and then moved north to Ambakaamam. It is now trying to move from Ambakaamam along the axis of the old Kandy Road towards Iranaimadhu.

Task Force Four which took Nedunerny earlier moved along the Nedunkerny – Oddusuddan road and reached Oddusuddan. After consolidating the Task force four moved north – east along the axis of the Oddusuddan – Puthukkudiyiruppu Road and reached Katsilaimadhu where the Pandaara Wannian the chieftain of Adankapatru fought his last battle against the British.

The 59 division under Brig. Nandana Tudawatte has also made vast advances. After advancing north along the Mullaitivu district coast some 59 division soldiers have reached Silawathai south of Mullaitivu. Other 59 division troops moved along the axis of a road from Thannimurippu north to Thaniootru on the A – 34. Then troops also moved into Mulliyawalai and Koolamurippu.

Thereafter 59 division soldiers moved along the western side of Nandhikkadal lagoon in one forward movement and along the Puthukkudiyiruppu – Mulliyawalai road in another. By this they encircled the Vatraappalai village where the most famous Hindu temple in the Wanni -Vatraappalai Amman temple – is located. Subsequently the temple has been brought under Army control.

The 59 continued its forward movement along the Puthukkudiyiruppu Road and reached the outskirts of Keppapulavu village where the LTTE chief resided for a long time. Troops also cut across to the coastal road from Mullaitivu to Puthukkudiyirupp and reached Mullivaaikkal. Troops also moved along the A – 34 to Neeraavipiddy. The 59 is now in a position to move towards Mullaitivu town from three directions.

Defencive war

It can be seen therefore that the LTTE is fighting desperately to contain and check the army in many different places like Tharmapuram, Kandawalai, Vattakachchi, Chundikulam, Kerudamadhu, Ambakaamam, Iranaimadhu, Neeravipitty, Keppapulavu, Mulliyaanveli and Silawattai.

In such a situation it is doubtful whether the LTTE can continue to fight a defensive war and retain the shrinking territory under its control. The Army can throw in more than 50, 000 troops from multiple directions at these positions. The Navy can concentrate on shelling the coastal areas. The Air Force can bomb easily on specific targets.

Under these circumstances the chances of the LTTE holding out are pretty slim unless the Tigers are able to launch effective counterstrikes or counteroffensives.

Will the LTTE be able to do so and transform the military situation? The answer is at best a cliché.

Only time will tell.

DBS Jeyaraj can be reached at

djeyaraj2005@yahoo.com