Internally displaced people now soaring above one million.

After Kilinochchi : What?

200,000 people in the Kilinochchi area to move to Mullaitivu with the total number of internally displaced people now soaring above one million.

My dear Mahinda Aiya,

Ayubowan, vanakkam, assalamu allaikkum and congratulations on leading the nation to a day of triumph in Kilinochchi, the de-facto administrative capital of the LTTE.

It was a prestigious and popular victory for the security forces and the government with the fire crackers other celebrations giving a bigger bang than the New Year’s Eve balls or fireworks.

LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran in his Heroes’ Day speech on November 27 had taken a defiant stand and said the President’s boast of liberating Kilinochchi soon was only a daydream.

Yet the daydream became a real dream for the President and the country. The LTTE leaders MahaVeerar or great Heroes’ Day defiance was shattered and the great heroes among the Tigers had apparently retreated to Mullaitivu to prepare for the final battle there. When the army brigades entered Kilinochchi town and the news was given to Army Commander Sarath Fonseka at 12.30 p.m. the town of great price was a ghost town. The LTTE had persuaded or forced more than 200,000 people in the Kilinochchi area to move to Mullaitivu with the total number of internally displaced people now soaring above one million. After the brigade commander gave the news of the capture of Kilinochchi town at 12.30 p.m. on Friday, hurried moves were made for a big victory ceremony. It was held at the presidential secretariat around 4 p.m. with the giant cabinet, top civil and military officials being present. It was a moment of glory for you as you proclaimed the historic victory and gave a final warning to the LTTE to lay down arms and come for talks. If the Tigers do not do that they face a ban and a decision on it is likely to be taken this week. Army Commander Sarath Fonseka also gave details of the operations that led to the capture of Kilinochchi on Friday. He said the LTTE now held an area of only about 40 square kilometres and independent defence analysts believe the final decisive battles are likely to be bitterly fought in that area.

The Army Commander admitted that the troops had played a heavy price for the achievements up to now though he did not give figures. Independent defence analysts believe hundreds if not thousands have been killed or wounded on both sides.

The question now is: after Kilinochchi what? Government and military spokesman say the next target would be Elephant Pass and finally the showdown in Mullaitivu. Some defence analysts believe a big question mark hangs over whether it will be Mullaitivu or mayhem.

The response of the international community is also a cause for concern. The United States, Japan and India are among the countries which have said they are not impressed with such military victories and want a political package which now looks more like some lost baggage that might not be found.

The coming days and weeks will be critical not only on the battlefronts in the North but also elsewhere; with intelligence reports indicating the LTTE might launch massive diversionary attacks elsewhere. After the victory ceremony and celebrations at 4 p.m. on Friday, the LTTE diverted some attention by carrying out a suicide bomb attack at the Sri Lanka Air Force camp in Kompannaveediya.

One private TV channel immediately moved its camera crews to the suicide bomb scene and state media later accused this TV station of trying to undermine the Kilinochchi triumph by overplaying the incident at the SLAF camp. But the TV station refuted this charge saying that about 20 minutes of its half hour news bulletin focused on the Kilinochchi victory.

As in many other issues there was confusion and contradictory reports over the media portfolio itself last week.

The presidential media unit said Sarath Amunugama was replacing Karu Jayasuriya as Minister of Public Administration, Anura Priyadarshana Yapa was taking Mr. Amunugama’s place as Minister of Enterprise Development and Investment and that the President was taking over the Media portfolio.

Later the Information department issued a statement saying Mr. Yapa was still the Minister of Media and Information but other reports said there were some differences of opinion between you and Mr. Yapa and that he was likely to be replaced.

The other big story involved fuel. Earlier the government defiantly decided to disobey a Supreme Court ruling to reduce the price of petrol by Rs.22 a litre. Various reasons and legal excuses were given for this amid reports that top officials or even Ministers might be hauled up for contempt when the Supreme Court resumed its sittings.

In an apparent compromise the government announced what it described as an economic stimulant package where the price of petrol was to be reduced by Rs.2 while three-wheel drivers were to be given a special concession with a quota of petrol to be given on coupons at Rs.102 a litre.

The main opposition UNP and other parties are planning a big protest today to demand a substantial reduction in fuel prices but the firepower of the opposition has hitherto been far from effective.

Despite the compromise most analysts believe the government and the Supreme Court still appear to be on a collision course with decisive battles likely in the coming days and weeks as on the battle fields of Mullaitivu. Yours sincerely,

Koththa-malli