An interesting report and analysis from Vanni:

With the LTTE losing ground and men at a so called "steady" rate, many agree that the Tamil struggle is at it's lowest point. However, I have done an analysis on the LTTE's capability and the results were surprising. It may seem that the Tigers are gone for good, but that's not the case.

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The Srilankan defense ministry claims to be killing 30-50 cadres daily, but how true are these figures? What about their own casualties?

This link proves that individual people write so called "battlefield stories" for the defense ministry and put up any number of casualties they want to:

http://puligal.blogspot.com/2009/03/defencelk-is-41-more-lethal-than-armylk.html
This shows that the real number of causualties they claim to inflict are untrue.
What about the dead bodies the collect once in a while? This link will prove:
http://puligal.blogspot.com/2009/03/sri-lankan-government-caught-posting.html
And the large amount of weapons they uncover?:
http://puligal.blogspot.com/2009/03/sri-lankan-army-caught-fabricating-fake.html
http://puligal.blogspot.com/2009/03/defencelk-caught-with-more-fake.html

The war raging in the Vanni now is as intensive as never before. The struggle has never seen so many divisions consisting of thousands of soldiers, using such a large array of arsenal (including banned weapons like cluster bombs) with so much international backing, in battle. The army's secret to sucess is its arsenal, not its skill (Note that Jayasikurui troops were American trained, as were Agni Kheela and those which lost several battles recently). The Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers and Heavy Artillery can completely destroy a certain amont of land.

Further, the DPU was largely active in the East, and Karuna group Cadres knew where LTTE hideouts were. East was captured by LTTE without firing a single bullet (when camps were closed for Jayaskurui, LTTE moved in), plus holding land is a heavy cost as the numerically larger Army started a war of attrittion. But the problem for LTTE was army opened up several fronts. In Jayasikurui, movement was only from Vavuniya, so Tigers took 500 soldiers from North 500 from Mullaitivu 500 From East etc. and deployed 3000 men at the front lines. This demoralised and "scared" the army.

With Karuna giving the near exact numbers in East, the army could march forward with peace of mind. When several fronts were opened together, cadres had to remain in their position. One notorious thing is that LTTE did not launch many offensives (the only ones they launched were to practise battle strategies, not to capture lost land, like in Mandaitheevu). LTTE was forced to be on the defensive, as army was exerting constant pressure amidst heavy losses. With some strategic gains, army has been able to "corner" the LTTE. However, the bulk of weapons are safely in the LTTE's hands.

In Kilinochchi battles, over 3000 army was killed. New LTTE strategy seems to be killing the army and withdrawing. When LTTE came to this point, north was very favourable terrain (Puthumattalan) which is very flat so army's numbers dont have an impact, and its narrower than the killing field of Muhamalai and Kilali, so the SLA can expect some serious casualties there. The open ground does not favour tanks or heavy weapons, so the army is going to stay there and die for a few more months.

Several divisions were taken out of battle, because the LTTE area was too small to advance into. Most of the borders are waterlogged and forested. LTTE guerrilla units are becoming more and more active, infiltrating behind enemy defenses and wiping out Karuna group and STF slowly in the East, and attacking SLA units as far as the forests West of the A9. Government thinks Karuna is no need anymore, since LTTE is "defeated", he will meet Lasantha's fate soon. LTTE has effectively slashed the number of soldiers it is facing, while killing several thousands in the process.

This will continue until all or most of the 50 000 army in Mullaitivu are killed or wounded. Also, army is very concentrated now, making them very vulnerable to potential LTTE chemical attacks or "tank blasting" (SLDF have no method of patrolling tanks and identifying divers. Iranamadu tank can be blasted if conditions get severe, but it's of historic importance, so the LTTE will not likely destroy it, but there are many more tanks.LTTE divers are well trained and cane even blast ships in Trinco harbour like what happened to Ranasuru and Sooryaya). Vanni offensive has now met a stalemate. How long can army stay in Vanni?

Already 59th division wiped out, and soldiers from Mannar have been brought to cover up the story. 58th division and 53rd division are also very weak numerically and can be wiped out at any time. Soon soldiers from East will be brough to make up for losses. LTTE guerilla units kill many soldiers regularly. The cost of holding land is high. No more DPU in the jungles to ambush LTTE leaders, while Jagath's death can come any time through claymores or suicide bombers!

If LTTE is not wiped out within 6 months, a turmoil will start in south (After defence.lk killed 10,000 LTTE cadres!). Army was born in Hambantota, Gampaha and Galle and went to fight in Vanni. LTTE cadres were born and grew in Vanni. Army will be tired of fighting in 6 months. They will start to desert. LTTE is believed to have 10,000- 40,000 cadres trained during CFA. They can effectively carry out an attack like Unceasing Waves 3 to capture vast areas in a short period of time.

We have to look at the past before we talk about the present. When army begs for a ceasefire, there will be no answer. The final battle will be bloody. It is true that the LTTE has lost area, but the defense ministry's claims today are exaggerated. They don't really capture so many bodies, the arms the claim nor are they pushing back the LTTE at the rate they claim. They need the news to keep Sinhalese in south and Sinhala diaspora's morale up. Army is really having a hard time in Vanni, because they do not have much battle experience (most joined in the past 2 years for the money, and several soldiers are deceived to make them go to the battlefield.

Commanders are promoted before going to battle so their families get more pension, and so they agree, hoping they survive. But most don't!) and LTTE is on the home turf.Fighting and taking the East will be another challenge, but soon army from East will be sent to the North to make up for dead soldiers, reducing the concentration, so when LTTE finally reaches Pulmoddai, it can advance easily if it breaks through Trincomalee defenses. It still has powerful weaponry never used in battle, and possibly further air power. Thousands of cadres are standing ready to fight. Victory is ours! Continue fighting in the streets with your protests!